Matchmaking Winners and Stars of UFC 292

Karine Silva: Miranda Maverick

Make that three submission wins in a row for Silva, who now rides a 9 fight MMA win streak dating back to 2019. With wins over Ketlen Souza and Maryna Moroz, Silva should be looking to break into the rankings with one more fight. While on a different path, but with hopefully the same result, Miranda Maverick should look to get a fight that puts her back on the path in the top fifteen. After dropping fights to Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber, Maverick is 3-1, and a fight against Silva would be enticing, as it would set up two prospects to duke it out for a ranking, especially as the Women’s Flyweight division gets more competitive

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Natalia Silva: Casey O’Neill

Not too far off in the rankings from Karine Silva is Natalia Silva, who after a win against ranked Andrea Lee, will most likely get a ranking following UFC 292. Natalia Silva should face another top 10 flyweight, and After Casey O’Neil dropped out of fighting Aruajo earlier, the timelines should sync up for this top ten Women’s Flyweight fight.

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Andre Petroski: Gregory Rodrigues

Matchmaking the ever revolving door of the top 15-35 Middleweights in the UFC world is almost a tedious job. With fighters winning and losing to each other, as well as the presence of veterans dropping out of the top 15 to make room for new blood, as well as weight class changes, the unranked Middleweight sphere is dynamic and ever changing. For Petroski, winner of 5 straight UFC fights, is in this void; so close to the top 15, yet so close to being one loss away from being in purgatory. Beating Gerald Meerschaert is a huge step, and Petroski will be one win away from the top fifteen.

The same can be said about fellow UFC 292 fighter Rodrigues. Rodrigues is 5-2 in the UFC, with impressive wins over Park Jun-Young, Chidi Njoukani, and now Dennis Tiuliulin., but also some ugly defeats, especially the Bruno Ferreira KO. However, Rodrigues is proving to be a tough match regardless who he faces, and if we are honest, Petroski needs that kind of test, just like Rodrigues needs to fight a fighter with some UFC experience and durability, like Petroski.

This fight would be a banger and really solidify each fighter’s spot in the rankings.

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Brad Katona: Winner of Johnny Munoz JR and Aori Qileng

With a fight of the night bonus secured, Katona can now look to face some UFC fighters for his next fight. In an absolute war, Katone showed he can go a full three rounds of action, and that should excite UFC fans. However, this doesn’t mean that he needs to be rematching Merab for his next fight. However, a fight coming up in October might prove a good stomping ground for Katona. Johnny Munoz vs Aori Qileng features two fighters who have had ups and downs in their UFC careers, and the winner will be on a nice little streak, which should bode well for the TUF winner Katona. Both fighters have similar styles of attack, so it should provide an exciting fight for Katona when he is back.

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Kurt Holobaugh: Maheshate

Holobaugh is back in the UFC with an impressive victory over former UFC fighter Austin Hubbard. Cashing in as one of the two underdogs to win on UFC 292. For Holobaugh, like Katona, he won’t immediately be given a tough fight near the rankings given how stacked the division is, but don’t be surprised if the UFC gives him a tough test against some young prospects. There is where Maheshate lies. 1-2 in the UFC, but with a very impressive KO over Steve Garcia, Maheshate is looking to prove himself over a vet after some grueling losses to Rafa Garcia and Viacheslav Borschev. Maheshate and Holobaugh both have something to prove, and this fight could be a very entertaining one from start to finish

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Brad Taveres: Joe Pyfer

Be Joe Pyfer, or beat Joe Pyfer. Brad Tavares, after a lackluster win over former champion Chris Weidman, where although he won handily, showed timidness and not enough aggression. If the vet wants to re-enter the rankings, he is going to have to fight an up and comer with name recognition. Enter Joe Pyfer , who should be closing in on a top 15 ranking next to his name soon. Pyfer is a well rounded fighter who also needs that last big name on his resume before he ascends to the top 15, and Tavares, a staple of the top 15-25 rankings, might also be willing to fight a tough fight if it means going back into the top 15.

I also understand that Taveres has a ton of wear and tear, and maybe he doesn’t want to fight for the top 15. In that case, he might just fight down, and fight someone like Jacob Malkoun, Andre Petroski, or Puna Soriano if he just wants to be a good test to not-as-hyped up and comers.

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Marlon Vera: Wait for the title? Henry Cejudo? Aljamain Sterling?

MArlon “Chito” Vera is in ranking purgatory after his win over Pedro Munhoz. Storylines mean everything to the UFC, so you can’t fault them for wanting O’Malley vs Vera 2. However, I believe he hasn’t earned it, especially with Merab and Sandhagen waiting in the wings (barring injuries). So for Vera, his smartest move is waiting for the belt, but if the UFC doesn’t play it that way, there are multiple high risk, and probably low-reward options out there. A fight against Henry Cejudo or Aljamain Sterling would do little to boost his championship aspirations, as he is third in line, and I doubt Sandhagen of Merab would want to fight Vera for the same reasons. So I’m splitting this matchmaking into two sections: One for what I think Vera/UFC wants, and another for what I think should happen.

For Vera, his best outcome is the following:

Wait for the title Fight Henry Cejudo Fight Aljamain Sterling

What should happened/What I want:

Fight Henry Cejudo Fight Sterling Fight Petr Yan

I don’t believe Vera should be sent to fight for the title. He has a loss to Sandhagen, and Merab is too high above him to justify skipping Merab (again barring injury). For me, Vera needs one more win versus an established contender (whether or not you would call cejudo coming back and losing “established”) before he leaps-frog other fighters.

Vera is only 30, and although that shouldn’t mean he should wait, but what I believe is that he needs one more win before he gets a shot at the 135 belt

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Mario Bautista: Kyler Phillips

First, shoutout to Da’mon Blackshear for not only stepping up for a 7-day turnaround, but also for providing an incredibly competitive fight.

So for Mario Bautista, the bantamweight fighter is very close to reaching the top 15, however, with Guttierez vs Montel Jackson, and Adrian Yanez vs Jonathan Martinez already booked, Bautista will have to look elsewhere, as the winners of those fights would be too high ranked for Bautista, and the losers probably needing another tune-up fight before facing Bautista. So fighting another fringe top 15 fighter will do (and no, I am not putting up Garbrandt here). Kyler Phillips, who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Raoni Barcelos and winner of 4 other UFC fights, including Song Yadong, should fit the bill nicely. The timeline should line up, as both these fighters will gain a good amount of momentum from this fight to push them to the edge of the rankings.

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Ian Garry: Sean Brady/Vicente Luque/Gilbert Burns

Maybe it’s too soon to buy into the hype, especially with a long line of title contenders lining up for Edwards, as well as other young prospects like Shavkat Rakhmonov and Jack Della Maddalena in the mix, but goddamn is it fun.

For Ian Machado Garry, it’s not about the reddit fans that think his callouts are cringe, it’s about the electric atmosphere and aura of McGregor that brings that energy to this fighter. Ian Garry has only fought in loud and crowded arenas, and he feeds off that energy.

So for matchmaking, it’s worth putting him up against someone who can provide a banger of a fight to electrify an arena.

Insert either Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, or Gilbert Burns. Each fighter, while at different stages of their careers, brings something different to a fight with Garry. I would love to put Stephen Thompson in here as well, but i’ve been seeing some sources saying that Thompson has declined that fight

For Brady, a fight against Ian Garry would be a fight of younger prospects who are known for their quick and fluid fighting styles while dominating most opponents.

A fight against Luque would provide Garry another stepping stone to a title shot, while Luque gets to fight a prospect to show that you can’t count him out

And for Burns, if he wants to get a title shot against Edwards, what better way than to stop a hype train, while Garry gets a clear top five spot if he wins. The Burns vs Chimaev fight was one of the best three round fights ever, and why not capitalize on that hype.

For Ian Garry, a fight in the top 7 is in his sights now, and he soon may be fighting for a title eliminator.

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Amanda Lemos: Virna Jandiroba

There were not a lot of positives to take from this fight, however, Lemos did land a few good shots when she wasn’t being smothered and almost pulled off some crazy submission attempts that were reminiscent of Volkanovski vs Ortega.

I don’t expect LEmos to drop too far, but she will have to face someone below her after that performance at UFC 292. I expect her to face someone around the 6-10 range in the top ten, and Virna Jandiroba, who is coming off two good wins, fits the bill.

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Zhang Weili: Yan Xianon/Tatiana Suarez

Zhang should overtake Grasso as the number 1 PFP womens fighter in UFC. After her dominant performance against Lemos, Zhang looks absolutely unstoppable. Her three fight win streak includes two title fights and two impressive finishes, with the Lemos fight being the largest strike differential gap in Women’s fight in UFC history.

For Zhang’s next defense, it should go against Yan Xianon. Xianon, I believed, should have been fighting Zhang instead of Lemos from the start. Although Xianon has losses to Carla Esparza and Marina Rodrigues, she has rallied off an impressive win over Jessica Andrade, and a grueling close fight with Mackenzie Dern. Xianon should be next for Zhang.

A case could also be made for Suarez, who has equally impressive wins over Jesicca Andrade (Poor Andrade) and Montana De La Rosa, and even has wins over Alexa Grasso and Carla Esparza. However, those last two wins were back in 2018 (5 years ago sheesh where has the time gone), and Suarez may end up needing a rematch with Esparza, or fight Dern if she beats Andrade, in order to secure the title shot.

Both fighters have a good claim for next contender, for me Xianon should be next, but either way, the next women’s strawweight fight should be a good one.

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Aljamain Sterling: Marlon Vera/Cory Sandhagen or Song Yadong if he stays at Bantamweight, Brian Ortega or Yair Rodriguez if he moves to Featherweight

And the end to one of the weirdest title reigns in UFC comes to an end. Aljamain Sterling, owner of multiple Bantamweight title fights and regular records, has had his fair share of love and hate throughout his run. Starting from the DQ win over Yan, to the close (but i stand by this, not controversial) win in the rematch, then to fighting a one-armed Dillashaw, to winning his last fight against an unretired Henry Cejudo, Sterling’s run has been filled with highs, but also criticisms as many point out flaws in his wins. All this culminates in a loss to Sean O’Malley who has had his fair share of controversy, from the NC with Munhoz and the win over Yan (controversial here), but more on him soon.

For Sterling, he is at a crossroads. He won’t get an immediate rematch, there are too many fighters lined up that the UFC is just waiting to line up for O’Malley, and he has been thinking about moving up to 145 as well. So the matchmaking is split into two parts again.

If Sterling stays at 135, the most reasonable options would be a fight against Marlon Vera, or a rematch with Sandhagen. However, as mentioned before with Vera, these two will either wait for their own title shot, or face Merab in a kind of title eliminator fight while O’Malley faces the other fighter. In this case, the next logical step would be Song Yadong. Owner of some missteps himself, with a loss to Kyler Phillips and an unfortunate doctor’s stoppage loss to Sandhagen, Yadong has quietly put together a good resume, with wins over Marlon Vera, Marlon Moraes, and Ricky Simon, and was scheduled to fight Rob Font, before he had to pull out and Font faced Sandhagen. This fight seems like the most logical in my opinion if he stays, as the UFC gets to milk one of Sandhagen, Vera, or Merab for the title, while keeping Sterling around in the mix without having to remove one of the others from contention.

If Sterling moves to 145, he won’t be getting the title shot. “If O’Malley did that to me, imagine what Volk would do”

Now there is precedent for losers of a title to go fight for one in a different division, and I’m sure if Sterling moves up, he would most likely fight for a belt with 1 or 2 wins.

For me, Sterling should face either Brian Ortega or Yair Rodriguez in his 145 debut. Both these fighters are coming off losses, but are still in the top 5. These fights would be a good showcase for Sterling, and would add to either Ortega’s or Rodriguez’s resume as they try to pick themselves up. Other options would be Arnold Allen or Topuria, but these youngsters may wait for a more neticing matchup as both are expected to compete for the title soon enough once the old guard passes.

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Sean O’Malley: Merba Dvalishvili

Welcome to the Suga Show. The first episode was the win over Yan as an 11th ranked fighter. The middle of the season was the Sterling win, and we can have a great season finale with a fight over Merab.

There is no better option. Sandhagen and Vera have good arcs and stories, but the build up for Merab is too good.

O’Malley beat Merab’s best friend, the friend who was supposed to move up and let Merab go get his own gold on his own accord, but now has the added benefit of revenge. It is everything you want in a storyline. The undisputed underdog in O’Malley who has had his fair share of ups and downs with the Vera loss and the Munhoz NC, in which he was losing the first round, to winning the title in spectacular fashion.

Barring injury, Merab vs O’Malley is the match to make.