Since I already had all the data to check, and I was curious how much variance there was in the outcome of fights based on different referees. I figured at least a couple of people might also find it interesting!
This is based on UFC data for fight results, so it includes UFC, Pride, Strikeforce, and WEC fights. I have only looked at referees with >= 100 fights in the data, which covers most of the well-known referees anyway.
Some caveats to this data before jumping to conclusions;
These referees will work on plenty of cards outside of the UFC, this is only a small sample of fights for each of them, and if I had all the data available, it’d potentially look vastly different. No two referees will be involved in the same fight, so there may be variation simply through luck, and so if the referees are assigned to fights through anything other than RNG behind the scenes, it’ll be even more skewed. The ratio of knockouts, submissions, and decisions has changed a lot over the years and decisions are a lot more common than they were 20 years ago. However, there are also far more frequent fights now than there were back then. So while the data is biased based on how long the referee has been active, it’s not as biased as one might assume from that alone.
On the left is the ratio of fight outcomes for each referee, while on the right is the difference from the average for each referee and outcome combination.
Below are the raw numbers for each referee.
|| || |Referee|Fights|TKOs|Subs|Decisions| |All|10187|3484|2222|4481| |Leon Roberts|195|64|26|105| |Mike Beltran|166|46|29|87| |Keith Peterson|369|113|58|193| |Kerry Hatley|127|35|23|64| |Mark Smith|497|167|75|248| |Marc Goddard|521|172|94|253| |Chris Tognoni|444|131|88|214| |Yves Lavigne|281|84|64|133| |Jason Herzog|462|145|97|213| |Kevin MacDonald|101|34|20|45| |Herb Dean|1335|482|279|558| |Josh Rosenthal|234|76|57|97| |Dan Miragliotta|487|192|86|201| |Mario Yamasaki|416|144|98|170| |Steve Mazzagatti|285|104|74|103| |John McCarthy|742|290|196|240|
I would normally comment on the data I’m posting, but in this case, it seems all fairly straightforward just from looking at the charts, so I don’t have much to say. I hope a few people find this interesting at the very least!
submitted by /u/Kezyma
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